IRS data from the fourth week of the tax filing season—the week ending February 21, 2025—continues to suggest that taxpayers are not excited about filing this tax season. Tax filing statistics are down in almost every area, except for tax refunds.
Filing and Processing Dips
Early filing data reflects a continued downturn in tax returns received compared to the prior year. The dip is 4.2% compared to last year (and 7% down from the same filing period in 2023).
The IRS has apparently given up on excuses. After three weeks of offering an explanation for the lower numbers, explaining last week that the agency “expects the tax return filing numbers will level out in future weeks as the April filing deadline approaches,” the IRS didn’t offer any such platitudes this go round—just the numbers.
The IRS is in disarray and cuts and hand tying at the agency are showing. The IRS is currently without a permanent Commissioner (and the acting Commissioner stepped down last week, without ever offering a welcome message). A Trump Administration hiring freeze at the tax agency has begun, with existing job offers being rescinded. Thousands of workers have been eliminated from their positions, with additional cuts on the way. And, after President Trump suggested he might fire some current IRS workers or move those authorized to carry guns to the border for immigration enforcement, the Department of Homeland Security sent a letter to Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent to deputize IRS agents to help with efforts to crack down on immigration.
Following the changes, many taxpayers wondered if IRS was even open for business (it is). Others questioned why bother filing since they are convinced that noncompliance will simply be met with a shrug.
In addition, taxpayers have voiced concerns about the privacy their financial data after reports surfaced that Elon Musk’s Department of Government Efficiency (DOGE) requested access to sensitive taxpayer data at the IRS. According to various reports, DOGE is seeking access to the Integrated Data Retrieval System (IDRS). You can think of the IDRS as a master file, which includes tax returns and other taxpayer information, including bank records. As a result, several cases are now pending in courts throughout the country, including those aimed at preventing DOGE from accessing any taxpayer information in IRS tax account systems. Additionally, the White House and the Treasury Department reached an agreement to provide a DOGE software engineer with “read-only” access to tax account systems and restricted access in the IDRS to anonymized tax data.
Still, the changes are making taxpayers nervous—and that might explain why filing numbers in 2025 remain sluggish. The IRS received 42,707,000 individual income tax returns in 2025, compared to 44,584,000 in 2024. That’s a drop of more than two million returns, representing about 4.2% fewer returns and part of a bigger pattern—there has not been a single week in the filing season to date with an uptick
Most of those returns were e-filed. In 2025, the IRS has received 41,896,000 e-filed returns, compared to 43,661,000 in 2024. That’s a drop of 4.0%.
(About 57% of those e-filed returns were self-prepared, which is not unusual to see early in the tax season.)
The data shows that the IRS has processed 42,396,000 individual income tax returns as of February 21, 2025, compared to 44,073,000 by February 23, 2024. That’s a decrease of 3.8%.
Web Visits
Web visits to IRS.gov were also sharply down, dropping a significant 42.8% compared to 2024. There have been 167,087,000 visits to the website as of February 21, 2025, compared to 292,164,000 visits by February 23, 2024—that’s a difference of 125,077,000 visits.
The downturn in web visits may reflect the fact that the website has not been regularly updated—there have been only 10 press releases posted since the season opened (and three of those were posted in one day after this statistics window). I expect that taxpayers will continue to avoid the website for a few reasons, including that media and communications personnel were included in the most recent round of firings and sources have indicated that communications will not be shared until they have been cleared at the top (Treasury)—that’s a marked change from previous practices. Additionally, taxpayers and tax professionals have expressed concerns about the security of their data, including making online queries on their tax accounts, with some suggesting that they may pause visits until they receive confirmation that their data is safe.
Tax Refunds
There is a bright spot: After a dip last week, average tax refunds have bounced back. The IRS has issued 29,615,000 tax refunds so far in 2025 compared to 28,945,000 in 2024, an increase of 2.3%.
The average tax refund is also up: $3,453 per taxpayer as of February 21, 2025, compared to $3,213 as of February 23, 2024, an upturn of 7.5%. The average refund issued by direct deposit also lower in 2025: $3,505 (as compared to $3,272 in 2024).
The refunds may continue to rise. The law requires the IRS to hold refunds tied to the Earned Income Tax Credit (EITC) and the ACTC until mid-February. The rule applies to the entire refund, even the portion not associated with the EITC and ACTC. That means if you qualify for the refundable credit, you’ll have to wait until the IRS can release it. As a result, if you’re an early EITC/ACTC filer, you should begin to see tax refunds by March 3—some taxpayers could see their refunds a few days earlier. That estimate is based on processing times, allowing for Presidents’ Day, which is a federal and bank holiday.
It continues to be an unpredictable season. Check back as the season progresses as Forbes continues to track those IRS numbers.
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